Did Gaurav Gogoi reduce BJP victory margin in Behali? Numbers say otherwise

The by-polls in Behali have witnessed a shift in political allegiances, particularly in the context of Congress's re-emergence in a constituency where it did not contest in 2021. 

While BJP retained its vote share and emerged victorious, the Congress's resurgence was largely fueled by siphoning votes from other parties and independents rather than cutting into BJP's core voter base.

Despite its current status as a BJP stronghold, the constituency has experienced moments of Congress dominance, most notably in 2011 when the then Congress leader Pallab Lochan Das secured the seat with 40,798 votes.

Analysing the Vote Dynamics

In 2024, BJP's Diganta Ghatowal won with 50,947 votes, close to the 53,583 votes secured by BJP in 2021, showing that its vote share (around 50%) remained consistent.

This continuity reflects the BJP's robust organisational structure and its ability to retain its loyal voter base in Behali.

Congress’s Gains at the Cost of Others

Congress did not contest in 2021 but made a comeback in 2024, with Jayanta Borah, the previous Independent candidate, joining its ranks. Borah increased his vote tally from 23,744 (22.57%) as an Independent in 2021 to 41,896 votes as the Congress candidate, a significant leap.

The majority of Congress's gain came from Independent and smaller-party voters, particularly the CPI(ML)(L) and some fragmented votes from other marginal players.

Decline of CPI(ML)(L)

In 2021, CPI(ML)(L)'s Bibek Das secured 21,531 votes (20.46%), a sizeable share that played a critical role in the election's dynamics. However, in 2024, this left-leaning vote bank largely migrated to Congress, as CPI(ML)(L) failed to retain its influence.

This swing showcases the Congress's effective consolidation of the anti-BJP vote by appealing to both Independent voters and those from smaller parties.

AAP's Marginal Role

The 1,217 votes secured by AAP in 2024 suggest its inability to establish a meaningful presence in Behali. While it attracted some new voters, its impact on the overall electoral outcome was negligible.

Historical Context: Comparison to 2016

In 2016, Congress, led by Rupak Sarma, garnered 28,551 votes (30.77%), while BJP's Ranjit Dutta secured 52,152 votes (56.2%).

The current vote count of 41,896 for Congress indicates not just a recovery but also a strategic gain by absorbing disillusioned voters from smaller parties, particularly the Left.

It is to be mentioned here that the Congress's gains in Behali were significant but came from consolidating the opposition vote rather than eroding BJP’s core support. Gaurav Gogoi's campaign played a pivotal role in galvanising support among left-leaning and Independent voters.

Despite Congress's resurgence, BJP’s vote tally remained largely unaffected, showcasing its entrenched support in Behali.

The by-polls marked the near disappearance of CPI(ML)(L) and independents as relevant players in Behali’s political landscape. Their voters found a new home in Congress, solidifying its position as the primary opposition.

Gaurav Gogoi and the Congress did succeed in revitalizing their position in Behali by consolidating non-BJP votes, but this gain was at the expense of smaller parties and Independents rather than BJP. 

The ruling party’s core voter base remained intact, ensuring its decisive victory. For Congress to pose a credible challenge in future elections, it must develop strategies to directly compete for BJP’s stronghold votes while maintaining its appeal to marginalised voter groups.