Why Gaurav Gogoi and Sushmita Dev have become headache for INDIA partners in Assam

Days before the December 19 meeting of the INDIA block in Delhi, which is likely to begin discussions on seat-sharing for Lok Sabha polls, reports of cracks among the alliance partners in Assam have surfaced. At the centre of this growing friction are two young leaders—Gaurav Gogoi of the Congress and Sushmita Dev of the TMC. Gaurav, son of Tarun Gogoi, former three-term chief minister of Assam, is a two-term Lok Sabha MP from Kaliabor constituency, now abolished following delimitation exercise earlier this year. 
 
Sushmita represented the Congress from Silchar Lok Sabha seat between 2014 and 2019. The former president of All India Mahila Congress lost the poll in 2019 and moved to the TMC in 2021 and was rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat. Daughter of Congressman and former Union Minister Santosh Mohan Dev, Sushmita, however, failed to get renomination for the Rajya Sabha earlier in July when her term came to an end. This was seen as the consequence of her failure to deliver for the party in Tripura where she was given charge of the assembly election in February this year.
 
Ever since the delimitation exercise, which not only changed Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency’s name to Kaziranga but also altered its geography, allegedly to reduce the demographic impact of Muslim voters—the core support group of Congress—Gaurav has been looking for a “safer constituency”. Kaliabor has long been a Congress stronghold, won thrice each by Tarun Gogoi and his brother Dip Gogoi and twice by Gaurav who is reportedly eyeing to contest from Nagaon, currently held by Congress leader Pradyut Bordoloi.
 
Nagaon has a substantial Muslim population across several assembly segments such as Batadroba, Rupohi, Samaguri, and Lahorighat. Ironically, between 1984 and 2014, the Congress won from the seat only once, in 1998. Between 1999 and 2014, the constituency was held by BJP’s Rajen Gohain, who criticised the delimitation exercise saying that it will help the reshaping of the constituency, which he said would benefit the “other party”.  
 
But Gaurav’s switch to Nagaon may not be an easy run as incumbent Congress MP Bordoloi is reluctant to vacate the seat. According to sources Bordoloi has already told top leaders in the party not to use him as the “pawn in the chess board”.  The former Assam minister, however, is on a backfoot as he has lost favour with the Congress high command because of his support to Shashi Tharoor, when the Thiruvananthapuram MP had contested the party’s presidential election against Mallikarjun Kharge, who had the unofficial support of Gandhi family. On the other hand, Gaurav Gogoi has been a personal favourite of Rahul Gandhi ever since the 41-year-old parliamentarian joined politics. 
 
As a backup plan, Gaurav is also mulling over contesting from Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency. The seat won by Tarun Gogoi twice in 1971 and 1983 was a Congress stronghold till 2014 when it was wrested by the BJP. The saffron party retained it in 2019 as well. The delimitation of Jorhat has not affected the geography and demography of the constituency significantly, but the Congress leader is not sure of a victory from this seat, sources told India Today NE.
 
While the Congress faces this internal squabble, tension is growing among ally partners, particularly between the TMC and Congress over four Lok Sabha seats—Karimganj, Kokrajhar, Dhubri, and Lakhimpur. None of the seats are held by either of the two parties. In Karimganj, the TMC is considering to field Sushmita Dev if consensus builds among alliance parties for a Hindu candidate. If there is a chorus for a Muslim contestant, the party may project Badrul Islam Barbhuyan. In the past, Karimganj swung between the Congress and AIUDF—not a partner of the INDIA block—but the BJP won the seat in 2019. The district of Karimganj has 56 per cent Muslim population.
 
The TMC is keen on Sushmita but the Congress and other alliance partners such as Assam Jatiya Parishad have also staked claim over this seat. The Assam units of the alliance parties are holding a meeting between December 22 and 23. The challenge for the leaders will be to iron out these conflicts before the Central leaders begin brainstorming in Delhi.