Limits of Dominant Politics and 2024 Lok Sabha Elections in North East India

The rise of the BJP in North East India attracted considerable academic engagement as well as media attention since 2014. Electoral Politics in North East India underwent a systemic change as BJP emerged as a dominant party at the centre espousing an ideological vision, driven by a top down organisational structure and, led by an uncontested leadership both within the party organisation as well the government.

A decade of electoral politics in the region bears testimony to the transformation of BJP from being a marginal player in  few states to becoming the dominant party in the entire region. BJP’s organisational strategy and electoral footprint fundamentally altered terms of alliance strategy and nature of political engagement between the electorally prominent regionalist parties from different states of the region and the party at the centre.

Six out of eight states in the region (including Sikkim) are at present either led by BJP or one of its allies in the NDA. SKM, the ruling party of Sikkim was a part of NDA till March 2024, but it pulled out just before the Lok Sabha elections and is now fighting independently. ZPM, the ruling party in Mizoram, had remained neutral and did not forge an alliance either with BJP or Congress.

Despite variations regarding spread of organisational footprint and penetration of ideological consensus endorsed by BJP, states across the region have been witness to two significant political trends. First, the replacement of Congress as a ‘dominant national party’ in these states with either BJP or its ally from NDA and secondly, a trend towards consolidation of strong and stable state level leadership. Congress on the other hand faces formidable organisational challenges and factional leaderships with the shift of its core traditional voters to BJP or its allies/NEDA partners in the region.

Though, in some of the states like Sikkim, Nagaland, and Tripura the regionalist parties (in Sikkim and Nagaland) or left parties (in Tripura) replaced congress as the dominant player more than two decades ago and the party ceased to be organisationally dominant even before the consolidation of a BJP dominant system in the region. However, the ruling parties/alliance in all the three states eventually joined NEDA and thus, became a part of BJP dominant system.  

Alliance and Political Dominance 

The dominance attained by the BJP in the region that traditionally remained warry of the party’s Hindutva agenda and Hindu nationalism owes in large part to the consolidation of a BJP dominant party system at the centre. Conventionally, the region has displayed a greater propensity in responding to political change at the centre and being in sync with the same. Thus, the rise of BJP as dominant national party at the centre reinvigorated dependency among the regionalist parties over the centre. In part, this phenomenon owes to the peculiar working of federalism in India as the perpetual quest for ethnic protectorate among ethnic leaderships, parties, factions and political forces perpetually deepen systemic dependence over the centre. However, to a greater extent it can also be attributed to two profoundly interrelated factors. First, the popularity of Modi in the region which becomes apparent in the steady rise of vote share of the party across the states.

It helped BJP to create a stable and independent social base for the party across states. Vote share and organisational strength differed state wise, though. Second, a well-marked strategy by the party to weave an informal alliance architecture  led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, called North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). The alliance architecture was primarily meant to politically keep Congress at the margins and thus helped BJP to monopolise the space of a dominant national party in each of these states in the region.

While on the one hand it deepened the dependency of regionalist parties over the BJP led alliance architecture on the other hand it also restricted the space for containing the erosion of social base that Congress enjoyed across states. The mutuality of electoral interest among regionalist parties and BJP as both considered Congress as rival across states gave primacy to informal alliance architecture. It was informal as in many cases during assembly elections, BJP fought the parties which were part of NEDA and yet came along in the government formation. NPP in Meghalaya and NPF in Manipur can be cited as instances of the same.   Eventually, dependency strengthened and reinforced dual dominance- dominance of a national party both at the centre as well as the region. 

Shades of Dominance 

Despite attaining dominance BJP’s electoral base in the region remains fragile and further the nature and extent of political dominance varies state wise. North East as a region is characterised by rich diversity of electoral politics and each state has unique features which determine the nature of political competitiveness and agenda of elections. BJP’s dominance in the region has not gone uncontested and thus there are different shades of dominance in different states. Based on the nature and pattern of electoral arithmetic, demographic traits, primacy of local and ethnic questions, alliance strategy and resistance to BJP’s ideological plank and program it can be argued that there exist three shades of dominance that the party enjoys in the region. BJP has been able to maintain an unalloyed dominance to a greater extent in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, and to a considerable extent in Tripura. It is a dominant player, but its dominance is contested in Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Manipur. In these three states local politics, candidates and unresolved structural questions pertaining to ethnic strife, ethnic balancing, peace agreement, informal role played by churches in politics considerably moderate the organisational and ideological positioning of BJP.

Also, in these states regionalist parties enjoy considerable clout in agenda setting of politics. The third shade of dominance becomes apparent in Mizoram and Sikkim.In Mizoram, regionalist party ZPM maintains equidistance from Congress and BJP and primarily remain attached to local and ethnic questions. ZPM is not a part of NEDA yet openly expresses willingness to work harmoniously with whichever party comes to the centre after elections. Sikkim too has gone through political volatility in recent times and its alliance prospects remains contingent on the party that probably forms the next government at the centre. Thus, the idea and narrative about monolithic dominance enjoyed by BJP in region can be questioned and it may further be argued that the degree of dominance by BJP varies state wise according to the nature and extent of clout enjoyed by regionalist parties state wise. 
Limits of Dominant Politics

Congress could have contested BJP dominance given the graded nature of dominance that BJP enjoys in different state of the region. Between 2014 to 2024, Congress lost power in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Meghalaya and all these states became a part of NEDA. MNF, which was a ruling party in Mizoram (2018-2023) too was a part of NEDA. Despite the dominance, there are political opportunities before the Congress in the region. The passage of Citizenship Amendment Act, ethnic strife in Manipur, call for poll boycott by Eastern Nagaland Provincial Organisation in Nagaland, emergence of new regionalist party/alliance in Meghalaya, withdrawal of Free Movement Regimes in Mizoram are some crucial issues in these elections. These issues are deeply integral to the politics of indigeneity and ethnicity that characterised and defined the region for more than seven decades. However, Congress could not forge social/electoral alliance with any of the prominent regionalist parties that hasvisible political clout in numerical sense. For instance, despite nonresolution of 2015 Framework Agreement on Peace in Nagaland the Congress could not forge alliance with NPF or NDPP in Nagaland. BJP’s ability to withhold the internal weakening of informal alliance architecture despite setbacks in Manipur and Nagaland largely explains how political dominance itself become an important factor in retaining and managing alliances across states. The ability of the Congress to consolidate upon disaffection and dissatisfaction on key regional issues across states and BJP’s strategy of organisational politics would eventually determine the contours of the Lok Sabha elections in North East India in 2024. For BJP, it is about testing the limits of dominant politics while it is a question of political survival for Congress.