China deploying Combined Arms Brigade near Tawang after clashes in Arunachal Pradesh

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that China likely transferred its Combined Arms Brigade (CAB) deployed in proximity to the clash site at Lampug in Tsona Dzong during the standoff to Ritang in Lhontse Dzong within months following the incident.

In December last year, Indian forces successfully repelled a Chinese incursion in the Yangtse area of the Tawang sector. This was credited to the better tactical deployment of Indian troops like the occupation of the ridgeline, better preparedness, effective intelligence and all-weather deployment at the existing outposts in the area.

It's worth noting that the US Department of Defence, in its recent annual report to Congress, emphasised the deployment of three light-to-medium Combined Arms Brigades (CABs) by China in the eastern sector of the LAC, which further underscores the evolving dynamics in the region.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited the border area of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday where he performed ‘Shastra Puja’ with the troops on the occasion of Dussehra, a festival that signifies the victory of good over evil. The optics of Singh’s visit to the border area on Dussehra is significant.

Singh was accompanied by Chief of the Army Staff General Manoj Pande; General Officer Commanding-in-Chief (GOC-in-C) Eastern Command Lt Gen RP Kalita; GOC, 4 Corps Lt Gen Manish Erry. The Defence Minister was also shown some of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) posts seen across the border from Bum La.

India has leveraged its advantageous tactical position along the ridgeline and maintained a network of about half a dozen small outposts to counteract Chinese incursions. However, in recent times, China has invested in the development of a road network and new garrisons along the immediate depth areas of the frontier to improve their strategic deployments. Nevertheless, the permanent or semi-permanent deployment of additional Chinese troops in the region could potentially erode India's long-standing perceived advantages.

On December 13, 2022, following the reported clashes that occurred three days earlier in the border area of Arunachal Pradesh, both the Indian and Chinese governments issued separate statements. In these statements, both sides accused each other of transgressing the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and reported subsequent disengagement. However, Rajnath Singh, acknowledged the clash while addressing the Parliament, confirming that there were "no fatalities or serious casualties on our side". In contrast, the Chinese statement issued on the same day did not mention any clashes.

It's essential to note that this was not an isolated incident in the region. A similar clash had been reported a year earlier, with video footage of the incident going viral on social media shortly after the December 2022 confrontation.

Observers of the Indo-Tibetan border areas point out a larger trend that links other developments seen in this region analysing the latest imagery obtained by India Today.

“Recent developments show increased deployment of PLA assets in the eastern frontier of Indo-Tibetan border areas compared to the pre-Galwan clash period, suggesting the changed dynamics of the Indian border in China’s grand strategic calculations. Construction of the new dual-use airport in Lhontse Dzong, less than 30 miles from the McMahon Line and around 100 km from Tawang, has changed the status quo in the region. China seems to be augmenting their force deployment along the Tibet-Arunachal Pradesh border areas to gain a perceived upper hand in terms of infrastructure, communication and logistics compared to India,” said Nature Desai, an observer of the Indo-Tibetan frontier who has been monitoring developments on the LAC.

Desai has been posting these developments on his X account. “Analyzing the imagery, It was noticed that the PLA transferred some of the elements of their field camp in Tsona Dzong directly opposite the Tawang sector to a relative depth area at Ritang of Lhontse Dzong. The field camp of a light CAB established along the bank of Nyel Chu (Subansiri) also serves as a node for another troubling area along the LAC, the Subansiri frontier. Asaphila, and Tsari Chu valley (of the Longju incident of 1959 and recently built a new village allegedly in Indian territory fame) might be the next flash points along the eastern sector of the LAC in coming times,” he added.

Recent high-resolution imagery suggests continuous deployment of the CAB at Ritang in Lhontse county for almost a year now.

China analysts point out Beijing’s wider goals with regard to its borders with India. “The continuous push towards Arunachal Pradesh is to have its territorial claims secured. India legally administers Arunachal Pradesh, while China only claims it. The broader strategy is to secure its land borders with India, for Beijing disagrees with New Delhi’s position on acknowledging 'McMahon Line' as the boundary between China and India,” says Amrita Jash, Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education and the author of The Concept of Active Defence in China’s Military Strategy.

Jash highlights a glaring reluctance on China’s part in settling the boundary dispute with India. “For instance, in the recent past, China has expedited boundary negotiations with Bhutan by signing a Memorandum of Understanding on a ‘Three Step Roadmap’ and on October 24, signed a ‘cooperation agreement’.

"However, in the case of India, China has neither adopted the watershed principle as with Nepal, nor the McMahon Line as with Myanmar and now the MoU with Bhutan- exemplifies Beijing's selective approach towards border settlement. Rather with India, not resolution but stand-offs have become more prevalent," she told Indiatoday.in.

Mentioning the continuous stand-off in Eastern Ladakh despite the 20 rounds of Corps Commander Level Talks, she added, “In assessment of China's behaviour, the bigger question to ask: Does China want or intends to resolve the boundary dispute with India? There is not much optimism to it.”

Other analysts link these developments directly to Xi Jinping’s policy that was reflected in his speech at the 20th Party Congress last year, where he emphasised winning the “local wars” as the PLA’s goal for the coming years. “Since then, he has repeatedly called for ‘combat readiness in any emergency situation’. China’s assertive actions on the LAC should be viewed from this aspect” said Omkar Bhole, Senior Research Associate, Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA).

He added that these developments near Tawang “should not be viewed as a reaction to any specific activity by India but as a part of China’s long-term strategy to avoid a two-front war dilemma”.

Questions have been raised about the recent removal of China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu and if it may cause some setbacks to Xi’s defence strategies. “Li is a military technology expert and his appointment this March as the Defence Minister revealed Xi’s preference for rapid military modernisation. Although this is expected to continue despite personnel changes at the top level, the removal of Li, along with the purge of other PLA officials in the past one year might weaken the morale of the PLA in general. This will not be visible in the short term, but it could hamper Xi’s long-term plans for the PLA, including at the LAC,” Bhole told Indiatoday.in.

While India’s infrastructure development in the border regions continues to move at its own speed, China experts see “non-military measures” such as India’s “vibrant villages” scheme to ramp up infrastructure development near the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and recent border tourism initiatives in these areas a necessary tool “to strengthen India’s hold over this region”.

“Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh is also likely to become a crucial sector during the time of the Dalai Lama’s succession process for which India needs to prepare from now,” Bhole added.

Meanwhile, Rajnath Singh also visited the 4 Corps Headquarters at Tezpur in Assam on Tuesday. “He was briefed on the infrastructure development along the LAC and the employment of cutting-edge military equipment and technology to enhance the operational efficiency of the troops deployed on the frontline,” a defence ministry statement said.