What caused BJP to fall behind Congress in violence-hit Manipur?

The Congress re-established its dominance in Manipur, hit by ethnic violence for more than a year, winning both the Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur Lok Sabha seats, and defeating the BJP-National People's Party (NPP)-Naga People's Front (NPF) alliance.

 

Angomcha Bimol Akoijam, who belongs to the Meitei community, won in Inner Manipur and Alfred Kan-Ngam Arthur in the Outer Manipur constituency, defeating Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh and Kacchui Timothy Zimik from the BJP-NPP-NPF alliance, respectively.

 

Arthur, the newly-elected MP, who also is a Naga, said it was his duty to work to bring peace to the state. When asked about brokering peace between the Meitei and Kuki communities, Arthur emphasised his role as a citizen and elected member, stating that it was his duty to work for the betterment of the state.

 

Over 200 people have been killed since the ethnic clashes broke out in Manipur between the Kukis and Meiteis on May 3 last year. The violence erupted first after a 'Tribal Solidarity March' was organised in the hill districts of Manipur to protest against the Meitei community's demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status.

 

Village were attacked, homes were set ablaze and shops were looted, leaving residents worried about their safety fearful of further violence. Parents resorted to giving sleeping medicine to children to keep them safe from attackers.

 

The conflict arose between the Meiteis, residing in the Imphal Valley, and the Kukis, inhabiting the hills. Meiteis constitute the dominant ethnic group, while Kukis are one of the largest tribes, and tensions between them have persisted for years. Different perspectives exist regarding the root cause of the violence, primarily revolving around land and population issues.

 

Fast forward to June 2024 and sporadic violence still persists in parts of Manipur. Various civil society groups have accused the BJP government in the state of not putting enough efforts to curb the violence. The saffron’s party loss in the Lok Sabha elections has put them in a difficult situation. So how did the Congress, despite infighting in its unit, managed to trump the BJP in a volatile state like Manipur? 

 

BJP's performance in 2024 LS polls

 

In Inner Manipur, the BJP was defeated with 1,09,801 votes whereas in Outer Manipur, the saffron party lost with 85,418 votes. This is a huge difference as compared to the 2019 election in which BJP’s Rajkumar Ranjan Singh won from Inner Manipur with 2,63,632 votes and NPF’s Lorho S Pfoze taking Outer Manipur with 3,63,527 votes.

 

Reflecting on the 2024 election results, secretary of CPI, K Shanta, said the people of Manipur have shown a desire for peace and prosperity, after the long series of violence in the state. 

 

Voters’ Trust

 

The massive drop in the vote share depicts voters depleting trust in the N Biren-Singh led BJP government.

 

Several BJP candidates faced rejection from the electorate, who were disillusioned by the government's failure to maintain peace. The BJP's attempts to secure the Meitei vote by neglecting the concerns of other communities only deepened the divide. 

 

Criticism mounted against N Biren Singh, not only for the government's inability to quell the violence but also for exacerbating Meitei majority sentiments. Narendra Modi, who is set to take office for a record third consecutive term, had not visited the conflict-ridden state since the onset of the turmoil, which added oil to the fire. 

 

Ahead of the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in the state, there weren't many campaign events, and people hardly saw any rallies or public gatherings. There were disruptions during some campaign events, with frustrated voters damaging Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Party flags were rare in the Inner Manipur constituency, which mostly has Meitei residents. 

 

The Manipur Congress blamed the BJP for the lack of campaign activities. One party worker said they avoided loud music and flashy car convoys out of respect for people suffering due to the ‘BJP's inaction’ on violence. Instead, their candidates visited relief camps for those affected by ethnic clashes.

 

Why was the government's response a reason? 

 

During last year's Monsoon Session of Parliament, the Opposition strongly protested against the violence in Manipur. To add fuel to fire, a disturbing video showing two women being paraded naked and groped by a mob caused nationwide outrage when it surfaced on July 19, 2023, just before the session began.

 

Opposition parties, including those in the INDIA bloc, criticised Narendra Modi for not speaking out about the Manipur issue. Narendra Modi finally addressed it on July 20, expressing his distress and calling it shameful for any society.

 

The central government's claims on women empowerment took a hit after the Manipur video and other cases of attacks on women surfaced. People started losing faith in the ruling government in the state and expressed disappointment over Biren Singh not being sacked despite violence showing no signs of ending. 

 

Members of the Kuki community asked the Centre to restore normalcy in Manipur as they lost their faith in the state government. In June, nine BJP lawmakers from Manipur sent a letter to Narendra Modi, in which they said that the people of the state no longer trust the state government.

 

Some reports emerged that Biren Singh would tender his resignation. However, locals tore his resignation letter and protested against his plan to step down from his post. Biren Singh later clarified that he would not be quitting.

 

Cracks in Manipur BJP 

 

The Manipur assembly replaced three MLAs from the Kuki community, who served as the Chairmen for different committees. They belong to Outer Manipur as the region is Kuki-dominated.

 

When it came to fielding BJP candidates, they were ‘scared’ to face the voters in Kuki-dominated regions and they refrained themselves to contest the Outer Manipur seat. Instead, they opted to support the Naga People’s Front (NPF) candidate, eliciting discontent among regional party members. 

 

This decision was perceived as a disregard for the efforts of grassroots workers, resulting in demonstrations and the vandalisation of the party's district office in Senapati.

 

Hundreds of BJP workers allegedly participated in the vandalism of the party’s district office. According to protesters, they anticipated the BJP to nominate one of its own grassroots workers for the constituency, but were disappointed when the party opted out of the race in favour of backing the NPF candidate.

 

Also, as many as ten tribal MLAs, including seven from the ruling BJP,  demanded a “separate administration” for the Kuki-Hmar-Zomi dominated areas in the state.

 

In a joint statement, the MLAs claimed that the majority Meitei community perpetrated the violence, which was “tacitly supported” by the state government.

 

Congress’s promises 

 

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that women and children were suffering in the state and accused the state government of showing complete apathy and neglect over the issue.

 

“Whatever help is being provided in camps has come from collective efforts of good samaritans, NGOs, and not the state government,” he said.

 

The Congress expressed concerns about the worsening situation in the violence-hit state under the BJP government. The party promised to fix communal clashes and make peace between the warring Kuki and Meitei communities. 

 

In their manifesto, the grand old party suggested setting up a reconciliation commission to solve issues politically and administratively, in a bid to bring back peace to the state.

 

The Congress also promised to replace the current government in Manipur and set up a reconciliation commission to tackle the ongoing problems in the state.

 

The recent Lok Sabha elections in Manipur highlighted significant shifts in the political landscape, reflecting both voter dissatisfaction and a desire for change. 

 

The Congress’s sweeping victory in both the Inner and Outer Manipur seats signifies a clear message from the people -- the need for peace, stability and inclusive governance.