Bangladesh unrest: What it means for Northeast India’s future?

India-Bangladesh relations improved significantly after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, led by Narendra Modi, came to power in 2014.

Shortly after assuming office as Prime Minister, Modi made an official visit to Bangladesh in June 2015. During his visit, the two countries signed the historic Land Boundary Agreement, ushering in a new era of bilateral relations.

The agreement ended the 41-year-old boundary dispute. Under the agreement, the two countries exchanged territories: 111 enclaves were transferred to Bangladesh, and 51 to India. Additionally, approximately 50,000 people living in these enclaves were allowed to choose whether to live in India or Bangladesh, with the option of being granted citizenship in the newly designated state.  

The Indian government also announced a $2 billion Line of Credit (LOC) for Bangladesh to use in infrastructure, power, health, and education projects. It further committed to finding a fair solution to the Teesta and Feni water-sharing issues.

Bangladesh’s then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hailed the visit and the signing of the agreement as a new milestone in the two countries’ bilateral relations. Since then, India-Bangladesh relations have progressed on an upward trajectory.

New Delhi’s trust in Sheikh Hasina encouraged India to invest generously in connectivity projects under the Look (Act) East Policy, fostering the integration of the North Eastern Region (NER) via Bangladesh.  

In the last decade, Bangladesh played an important role in the development of the NER and the realisation of India’s Look (Act) East Policy.

In April 2017, the two countries signed 36 bilateral agreements, and India extended a third LOC worth $4.5 billion to Bangladesh. In September 2018, India and Bangladesh jointly inaugurated the 131.5 km India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline Project (IBFPL), connecting Siliguri in West Bengal to Parbatipur in the Dinajpur district of Bangladesh. Since its inauguration, 42,000 tons of diesel, valued at $34 million, have been exported from Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL) in Assam to Bangladesh.  

On November 1, 2023, the Prime Ministers of India and Bangladesh met virtually to inaugurate the Akhaura-Agartala railway project, restoring connectivity between the NER and mainland India via Bangladesh. This rail link has the potential to reduce journey times between Kolkata and Agartala to 10-12 hours, while also connecting Tripura to Bangladesh's Ashuganj river port and Chittagong sea port. Additionally, the two governments agreed to inaugurate the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line on November 1, 2023.

This $3388.92 million railway project, implemented under a concessional LOC provided by the Indian government, was scheduled to be operational by September 2024. Once functional, the project was expected to reduce logistical hurdles and costs for transshipment of goods and cargo between Kolkata and the northeastern states.  

The opening of the 1.9 km Maitri Setu (Friendship Bridge) over the Feni River on September 9, 2023, connecting Sabroom in South Tripura with Ramgarh in southeastern Bangladesh, may position Tripura as a gateway to Southeast Asia. A Special Economic Zone (SEZ) was set up in Sabroom in September 2020 to attract private investment in Northeast India, as it connects to the Chittagong port in Bangladesh.

India is also working to develop National Waterways (NW)-1 (Ganges), NW-2 (Brahmaputra), and NW-16 (Barak) to create an economic corridor linking the NER with the rest of India via Bangladesh. The development of these waterways would also link Bhutan and Nepal via the NER.  

In April 2023, India and Bangladesh took steps to simplify trade transactions by agreeing to use their own currencies. They also agreed to set up several border haats in Mizoram, with the aim of benefiting people living in the border regions of both countries.

These developments have significantly improved trade between the NER and Bangladesh. For instance, trade between Tripura and Bangladesh increased from Rs 390.68 crore in 2017-2018 to Rs 758.9 crore in 2022-2023. The Sutarkandi border in Assam witnessed a surge in exports of fruits, coal, silicon, palm oil, soya oil, plastic, and waste cotton. The establishment of the 10th land port at Dawki, between Bangladesh and India, boosted the export of coal, bamboo, and limestone from Meghalaya to Bangladesh.  

The NER is a source of around 63,000 MW of hydropower energy, which could help compensate for Bangladesh’s power deficit. Additionally, the prospects for medical and educational tourism between the two regions remain high. Thus, Bangladesh and the NER complement each other, and any attempt to break the isolation of the NER will remain incomplete without Bangladesh’s cooperation.

India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, described Northeast India as the “big beneficiary” of the dramatic improvement in India-Bangladesh relations over the last decade.  

Most of Bangladesh's major cities are located within 300 km of India's northeastern region. When it comes to connectivity, trade, and security in the NER, this eastern neighbour plays a crucial role. However, there is growing apprehension that if the prevailing uncertainty in bilateral relations persists, the development of the NER will suffer a major setback.  

Historically, relations between the two countries have been mostly cold, except for brief honeymoon phases.

India played a decisive role in Bangladesh’s liberation and was the first country to recognise it as an independent state. India also played an important role in Bangladesh’s economic reconstruction, providing Rs 500 million in economic assistance to the newly formed nation.

However, the initial warmth in their bilateral relations did not last long, preventing the two countries from fully exploiting their historical links, geostrategic location, or trade potential.  

India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ approach has often failed to build strong bilateral ties, regardless of the ruling party in Bangladesh. Even during Sheikh Hasina’s second tenure, the two countries were trapped in a give-and-take approach for some time.

The Hasina government called off the exchange of transit-related documents after India backed out of the Teesta Water Agreement in 2011. Bangladesh also linked the deportation of arrested ULFA leader Anup Chetia to the ratification of the Land Boundary Agreement.  

Despite these challenges, both countries have worked diligently to overcome their historical mistrust. Sheikh Hasina has been a key figure in strengthening bilateral ties.

However, the Awami League’s exit from power has led to an immediate deterioration in India-Bangladesh relations and cast uncertainty over the development of Northeast India.

Trade between Tripura and Bangladesh has declined since Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India. Meghalaya has reported a revenue drop of approximately Rs 2.54 crore in just five days due to the closure of border haats.  

Political turmoil in Bangladesh could jeopardise key connectivity projects in the region. A change in regime might also significantly alter Bangladesh’s foreign policy, potentially improving ties with India’s estranged partners.

These uncertainties, if realised, would most adversely affect the development prospects of Northeast India. The current situation reflects a prevailing sense of apprehension over hope.  

 

(Joyati Bhattacharya is a professor at Assam University)