Why delimitation did not help BJP in the Lok Sabha Election in Assam

It was widely discussed that the interim delimitation exercise held in Assam on the eve of the New Year 2023 was more than just an effort to achieve equitable representation of the people in terms of parliamentary and assembly seats. 

Many believed that the exercise was designed to ascertain the political hold and dominance of the Assamese-speaking and various tribal groups who are perceived as 'indigenous' people of Assam for at least the next two decades. In fact, none other than Assam Chief Minister (CM) Himanta Biswa Sarma reinforced this presumption when he expressed hope that the delimitation would serve to ensure the future of Assam’s indigenous people in ways that the NRC (National Register of Citizens) could not. 

As reported in The Hindu on January 1 in 2023, Sarma said "the NRC was unsuccessful and the Assam Accord did not live up to expectations. Delimitation for redrawing Assembly constituencies can be one exercise through which we can safeguard the future of Assam for two decades by at least ensuring the State Assembly is less affected by demographic changes". 

Assam CM further asserted that delimitation had secured the representation, if not domination, of “indigenous” or majority Hindu communities in 100-odd Assembly seats. 

A senior minister in his government had claimed that the exercise will bring down Muslim legislators to 22. Currently, Assam has 31 Muslim members in Legislative Assembly (MLAs). The All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) also emphasised on the protection of the interests of the indigenous people during delimiting Assam. 

As reported in The Sentinel on January 7 in 2023, AASU General Secretary Sankar Jyoti Baruah said ‘the new delimitation process provides scope for protecting the political rights of the people’. These statements from reliable quarters indicated that the idea of interim delimitation in the state through substantial restructuring of administrative areas and boundaries in fourteen districts and merger of four districts, immediately preceding the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) ban on administrative redrawing of boundaries within the state, implied that delimitation was an attempt to checkmate the demographic imbalance that was observed in various parts of Assam, particularly in certain districts of lower Assam and Barak Valley in the last few decades.  

In the last decade, voter rise in Muslim dominated districts of Assam has been a major issue of concern. As per Muslim Census Data 2021, there are 11 districts in the state in which the Muslim population is higher than 50 percent. These include South Salamara Mankachar (95.19 per cent), Barpeta (74.94 per cent), Dhubri (73.49 per cent), Darrang (64.34 per cent), Hailakandi (60.31 per cent), Goalpara (57.52 per cent), Karimganj (56.36 per cent), Nagaon (56.20 per cent), Hojai (53.64 per cent), Morigaon (52.56 per cent), and Bongaigoan (50.22 per cent). 

Besides, there is a sizable Muslim population in seven other districts of Assam, namely, Kamrup (39.66 per cent), Cachar (37.71 per cent), Nalbari (35.96 per cent), Kokrajhar (28.44 per cent), Sonitpur (22.74 per cent), Chirang (22.66 per cent) and Lakhimpur (18.57 per cent). In the rest 17 districts of Assam, Muslim population ranges between 1.96 per cent (Dhemaji district) to 14.29 per cent (Baksa Distrcit). 

As per the Religious Data of Census 2011, out of 45.5 lakh people added in Assam’s population between 2001 and 2011, a total of 24.4 lakh are Muslims and 18.8 lakh are Hindus. It is worth noting that the demographic composition of Assam's districts was similar to that prior to the state's delimitation in 2023. 

Nevertheless, subsequent to the administrative reconfiguration of the boundaries of several constituencies and the reduction of districts from 35 to 31 through the amalgamation of Bishwanath, Hojai, Bajali, and Tumulpur into Sonitpur, Nagaon, Barpeta, and Baksa districts respectively, the demography of many districts in Assam witnessed a change.  

This sparked concerns in many quarters, notably among the minority Bengali Muslim community, regarding the actual purpose of conducting the exercise using 2001 Census data. 

Many alleged it as a ploy to ensure the BJP's trouble-free electoral victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2026 Assam Assembly elections, while undermining the political representation of certain groups. Amidst such claims and counter-claims, the current essay is an endeavour to decode the electoral outcome of Assam Lok Sabha election at the backdrop of the recent reorganisation of various districts and constituencies in the state in 2023 as part of delimitation. 

In 2019 Lok Sabha Election, there were five Lok Sabha seats in Assam which the BJP lost to the Indian National Congress (INC), the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and independent candidate. These Lok Sabha seats included Barpeta (INC), Dhubri (AIUDF), Kaliabor (INC), Nowgong (INC) and Kokrajhar (Independent). 

The BJP lost these constituencies mainly due to the demographic disadvantage as these constituencies are generally considered as minority bastions. But after the interim delimitation exercise, this demographic disadvantage was checkmated to certain extent. 

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, Abdul Khaleque of INC won the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat by defeating BJP’s ally AGP leader Kumar Deepak Das by a decisive margin of 1,40,307 votes. In 2014, Siraj Uddin Ajmal of the AIUDF won the seat by defeating Chandra Mohan Patowary of the BJP by a significant margin. 

In 2021 Assembly election of Assam as well, BJP managed to get only two assembly seats, while the AIUDF got two and the INC got four seats under Bapeta LSC. But after delimiting the boundary of the said LSC, its demography has altered considerably. 

Under Barpeta LSC, there are ten Assembly Constituency segments (ACS). Of these ten assembly segments, only two constituencies were retained and eight were replaced by new ones, namely, Abhyapuri (combining North and South of Abhyapuri), Bhawanipur-Sorbhog, Pakabethari, Bajali, Hajo-Sualkuchi (SC), Barkhetri, Nalbari and Tihu. Bongaingoan and Barpeta assembly segments were kept, although the latter was made SC reserved following delimitation. 

Constituencies that were eliminated included Jania, Baghbar, Sarukhetri, Chenga and Dharampur. Most of these constituencies were considered minority strongholds. Jania, Baghbar and Chenga constituencies in the Barpeta district, saw the number of voters increase by more than 50 per cent from 2011 to 2021. 

Due to the shifting of these thickly Muslim dominated constituencies and altering them with Hindu dominated Nalbari, Tihu and Barkhetri of Nalibari district, Barpeta became a Hindu majority LSC. 

Shifting of demography and the failure of INDI Alliance partners - CPIM and Congress - to reach an agreement to field one candidate from either alliance helped tilt the tide in favour of the BJP’s ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Mr Phani Bhusan Choudhury won a decent victory with a margin of 1,81,232 votes. 

Thus, delimitation might have given some advantage to the BJP in Barpeta LSC in obtaining a clear mandate in favour of its ally partner AGP. But the same did not happen in Dhubri for obvious reasons. 

Dhubri is another important LSC in which the BJP perhaps expected to gain taking the benefit of direct fight between the AIUDF and the INC. It may be noted that Dhubri was the battleground for keen contest between two heavy weight leaders of the AIUDF and the INC. The AIUDF supremo Badaruddin Ajmal won three consecutive Lok Sabha elections since 2009 in Dhubri and it is the homeland of 85 percent of his core voters, while Rakibul Hussain is a senior leader of the INC and happens to be the deputy leader of the opposition Congress in Assam Legislative Assembly. Dhubri is a traditional minority bastion. 

In the 2021 Assembly election, the AIUDF and the INC gained five of the 10 Assembly seats under Dhubri LSC, while the BJP received none. 

Delimitation led to a surge in minority dominance in this constituency. Four new assembly constituencies were added to it, namely, Birsing Jarua, Srijangram, Mandia and Chenga. These new assembly segments have been added by merging Bilasipara East and West and removing Goalpara West.  

Several Muslim-majority belts of neighbouring Barpeta distict was added to Dhubri LSC, resulting in decrease of Muslim dominance in Barpeta and further increase of it in Dhubri. 

Delimitation turned Dhubri by far Assam’s most populous Lok Sabha constituency. It has 26.43 lakh voters, more than 85 per cent of whom are Bengali-speaking Muslims. It has over 4.5 lakh more voters than the second-most populous constituency, Darrang-Udalguri, which has 21.87 lakh voters. 

The BJP was not expecting to win this seat and Chief Minister Sarma told that the people of Dhubri had always elected the Congress or the AIUDF and therefore there was no reason for him to count this seat. But Dhubri result depicts that now onwards the minority voters would be keen to consolidate and sacrifice their traditional loyalty to defeat the BJP and its ally at any cost. 

Massive mandate and huge margin of 10.12 lakh by which Hussain won the seat testifies the fact that minority voters have rejected the AIUDF perhaps believing it as the B Team of the BJP. 

Apart from Dhubri, Nowgong is also traditionally a Muslim dominated constituency and saw reconfiguration in the process of delimitation. A number of new assembly segments, namely, Batadraba, Samaguri and Dhing, the erstwhile minority dominated constituencies of Kaliabor LSC were adjoined to Nowgong post-delimitation and this Lok Sabha seat also saw significant change in demography. 

Demography in conjunction with broad all-India trend led to the victory of sitting MP Pradyut Bardoloi of the INC, although the BJP candidate Suresh Bora was also able to garner over 5 lakh votes, which indicates strong consolidation of votes in either side.

The abolition of Kaliabor LSC and subsequent election results is worth a lesson to be learned by the ruling BJP. The dissolution of Kalibor was resented strongly as it was considered as heavy weight constituency from which Gaurav Gogoi of the INC and the son of the erstwhile CM Tarun Gogoi won elections in 2014 and 2019. 

But post-delimitation Kaliabor LSC was renamed as Kaziranga and four Muslim dominated and Congress stronghold assembly segments of erstwhile Kalibor, namely, Dhing, Batadraba, Rupahihat and Samaguri were adjoined to nearby Nowgong. 

In fact, only three of the ten assembly segments of former Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat, namely, Kalibor, Dergaon and Khumtai, were retained under the rechristened Kaziranga constituency. There was lot of outrage since the breakup of the Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat was seen as a strategy to damage Gaurav Gogoi’s future political prospect in Assam. 

As result of this massive reconfiguration of his parent constituency Gaurav Gogoi had to file his nomination from Jorhat Lok Sabha seat instead of newly formed Kaziranga constituency. Kaliabor was a constituency with more than 5 lakh Muslim voters. This demographic advantage was missing for Gogoi when he shifted to Jorhat. 

Besides, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma spent several nights and many of his ministers, MLAs and other leaders camped for weeks at Jorhat constituency to ensure the defeat of Gaurav Gogoi. 

Jorhat Lok Sab seat became a ground for prestige battle. Few termed the contest between two Gogois in Jorhat to that of Abhimanyu's epic battle in Mahabharata. But the ruling party’s might and brazen display of strength backfired. 

BJP’s negative campaigning did not resonate on the ground. Instead, it helped Gogoi to set the narrative in his favour which resulted in his victory. Gaurav Gogoi won the Jorhat seat by defeating BJP’s Topon Kumar Gogoi with a margin of 1.44 lakh votes. 

The ruling BJP failed to capitalise on what they considered to be demographic dividend for them.

Karimganj is another interesting LSC that had an increase in minority population during delimitation. In Karimganj LSC, two assembly segments, namely, Ratabari and Badarpur were eliminated, while Algapur and Katlichera were amalgamated to form a new SC reserved assembly segment of Ram Krishna Nagar. 

The number of assembly seats after delimitation was decreased to six from eight. Seventeen revenue villages of Katigorah assembly segment of Cachar district was added to Karimganj, while Hindu dominated Badarpur township and Tapang block were withdrawn and transferred to Cachar district. 

Since 1962, Kariganj Lok Sabha seat has been reserved for SC. After delimitation the seat was de-reserved and nearby Silchar LSC of Barak Valley was reserved instead. Despite the fact that Karimganj is a minority dominated district, no Muslim candidate has been able to run for the office of the Member of Parliament (MP) since 1962. 

In 2024, when for the first time an educated Muslim lawyer, Hafiz Rashid Choudhury of the INC was fielded as a candidate, there was much enthusiasm among minority voters to choose an MP from their own minority community. But this seat at the tip of Bangladesh border often saw extreme consolidation of Hindu votes. 

Fear of insecurity, citizenship question, and communal polarisation often dominates the psyche of the voters in Barak Valley, particularly of Karimganj. This helped the ruling party to ultimately retain this traditional BJP bastion. 

Many expected that Muslim vote would split between the INC and the AIUDF but nothing like that happened as such on the ground. 

The AIUDF got only 29, 000 votes against 5, 26,233 votes that the INC candidate got. But this minuscule split of vote had given an advantage to the sitting BJP MP Kripanath Mallah to sail through primarily due to extreme consolidation votes on either side. 

If the overall outcome of the Lok Sabha election 2024 can be analysed, then one thing becomes certain that the larger picture at the all-India level had its ramifications in Assam as well. The BJP, together with its constituent partners (AGP and UPPL) of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) no doubt got eleven out of fourteen Lok Sabha seats but it was not quite smooth sailing for the ruling party as it had in 2014 and 2019. 

Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency outcome is a reminder that at the face of determined opposition, mere demographic edge based on Hindutva narrative is not enough to secure the BJP a smooth victory. 

This is a grim warning for the ruling BJP in Assam ahead of the 2026 assembly election. The ruling BJP, both at the centre and the state, need to revise their strategy to counter minority consolidation and caste fragmentation as well as to include voters as legitimate stakeholders of Indian electoral democracy rather than mere beneficiaries of various schemes. 

It is BJP’s persistent assault on the Opposition, regardless of party affiliations that led to unexpected unity of opposition and which eventually restricted the BJP quite far from simple majority. 

The same might happen in Assam also, where politics is dominated by Chief Minister Sarma, who seems to underestimate the power of the Opposition. In such a case, dissolution, rechristening and massive gerrymandering of Lok Sabha constituencies in the pretext of delimiting Assam will not help. 

After a period of introspection for the Congress, it is now time for the BJP, both nationally and in Assam, to engage in introspection.

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