Cabinet in Coalition government: Modi, NDA and beyond

The Opposition's most significant celebration following the 2024 general election results was the BJP's failure to secure a majority. This means the government will no longer be identified solely as a 'Modi' government but as an NDA government. 

The resurgence of alliance politics and coalition government at the centre after a decade brings back memories and experiences of the executive's everyday life from the past. The first question that arises is whether the NDA alliance will encounter the same messy politics that the UPA government experienced between 2009 and 2014.

Party-wise distribution in the Union Council of Ministers (initial composition) in minority coalition governments

Prime Ministers	Cabinet Ministers	Minister of State (Independent)	Minister of State	Total
Narendra Modi (2024-)	BJP-25 JD(S)-1 HAM-1 JDU- 1 TDP-1 LJP-1	BJP-3 Shiv Sena-1 RLD-1	BJP-32 JDU-1 APNA DAL- 1 TDP-1 RPI-1	71
Manmohan Singh (2004- 2009)	INC-18 DMK-4 RJD-2 NCP-1 LJP-1 TRS-1 JMM-1	INC-8 NCP-1 RJD-1	INC-16 RJD-5 DMK-4 IUML-1 NCP-1 TRS-1 PMK-1	67
A B Vajpayee-III (1999-2004)	BJP-14 Samata-2 JDU-2 SHS-2 DMK-2 AITC-1 IND-1 BJD-1	BJP-3 BJD-1 MDMK-1 PMK-1 IND-1	BJP-26 Samata-2 IND-1 MDMK-1 PMK-1 JKNC-1 AITC-1 DMK-1 TDP-1 SHS-1 BJD-1	69

(Source: Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India)

The NDA appears to be a formidable coalition government, but its strength poses challenges for Modi. The dominant party system led by the BJP has heavily relied on its electoral expansion across various states. With the emergence of the Congress-led INDIA coalition, elections are set to become more competitive, potentially disadvantaging the BJP in crucial states. 

Any decline in the BJP's numbers will directly impact the strength and authority that Prime Minister Modi enjoys. The shifting political landscape suggests a more balanced and dynamic electoral contest, which could reshape the nation's governance and would have potential impact in reshaping the relationship between the prime minister and cabinet as well as the opposition and government within the parliament. This dual shift in Indian politics may remain one of the most significant markers of Modi’s third consecutive term.

Under Modi's leadership, the stability of the NDA is not a major concern, provided that TDP and JDU remain committed partners. However, coordinating on the floor and passing key legislation will be challenging, as these efforts hinge on the shifting dynamics of state-level politics and how well the central government addresses the aspirations of TDP and JDU. The resurgence of state politics will inevitably impact the perception of Modi's status and strength, which he enjoyed under BJP's majority rule. This evolving landscape underscores the complexities of coalition governance and the importance of maintaining strong alliances.

                                                            National Democratic Alliance-2024

	Party Name	Lok Sabha Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party	240
2	All Jharkhand Students Union	1
3	Apna Dal (Soneylal)	1
4	Asom Gana Parishad	1
5	Janata Dal (Secular)	2
6	Janata Dal (United)	12
7	Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)	5
8	Nationalist Congress Party	1
9	Telugu Desam Party	16
10	Shiv Sena (Shinde)	7
11	Jana Sena Party	2
12	Rashtriya Lok Dal	2
13	Nationalist Congress Party	1
14	Sikkim Krantikari Morcha	1
15	United People's Party Liberal	1
16	Hindustani Awam Morcha	1
17	Hill State People's Democratic Party	0

A close examination of the cabinet formation reveals that NDA partners have limited influence over decision-making. As compared to previous Minority Cabinets led by Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, the present one led by Modi seems to be overshadowed by the single largest party both numerically as well as substantially in regard to the kind of portfolios which the BJP retained in the Cabinet. Major portfolios remain firmly under BJP control. Parties like TDP and JDU are primarily focused on securing special packages and substantial economic funding for their states' growth and infrastructure. 

As long as the BJP continues to meet these demands, both the NDA and the government will remain stable. However, the involvement of NDA partners in major policy decisions will be minimal due to the lack of coordination committees. 

Despite JDU and TDP's reservations about the BJP's ideological stance on various issues, it is the transactional politics of these state parties that bind the NDA together at the centre. The pragmatic politics of NDA partners, the stability of the government, decision-making within the cabinet, and the dominance of the BJP hinge on several factors:

Common Minimum Programme: The 2024 NDA government’s Cabinet lacks a common minimum program, unlike the Vajpayee-led NDA government of the past. Additionally, there is no convenor for the NDA this time around. Neither the BJP nor its partners appear interested in creating mechanisms to ensure cohesive alliance functioning. However, there is a move among alliance partners to appoint joint spokespersons for the NDA. Over the past decade, the BJP’s dominance has overshadowed its NDA partners, shaping the coalition’s dynamics significantly. So far, even the common agenda for governance is not in the public domain. Either it depicts a common minimum consensus over the previous policies of the Modi government that has to be carried forward or non-inclination towards creating any tangible long-term programme of the NDA government. 

Also Read: An idea of the robust opposition: Pitfalls and expectations

Cabinet ministers post: A major challenge for alliance partners in a coalition government is the allocation of cabinet positions and influential portfolios. Parties in a minority coalition especially covet key ministries like Home, Finance, Railways, Defence, and Education. Despite rumours and speculation, the BJP has retained control over these significant portfolios, leaving its partners with limited leverage. Predominant ministries remain under BJP leadership, continuing the trend from 2019. Consequently, there have been few disruptions in policy decisions by the cabinet ministers, maintaining continuity in governance despite the coalition dynamics. 

Speaker post: The position of the Speaker in the Lok Sabha carries significant discretion, allowing for a degree of autonomy over MPs. The Speaker has the final authority on MPs' behavior, actions, defections, and disqualifications, making it crucial for parliamentary parties to have the Speaker on their side. The BJP's dominance has even led alliance partners to push for the Speaker's post to curb or prevent defections influenced by the ruling party. Despite pressure from the TDP, the BJP successfully retained the Speaker's chair, ensuring it remains the central power in the alliance. The post of Deputy Speaker remains unfilled, and alliance partners are vying to secure it. As the second most influential partner after the BJP, the TDP is actively negotiating with the BJP to claim this position.

Special status: The two key NDA allies, TDP and JDU, are leveraging their critical role to secure support from the central government for their states. TDP governs Andhra Pradesh, while JDU leads Bihar, both of which face significant economic challenges. This is an opportune moment for these parties to negotiate, knowing that the central government's stability hinges on their support. The NDA's survival depends on the backing of JDU and TDP. For Andhra Pradesh, addressing the economic fallout from bifurcation and the impasse over the new capital, Amravati, requires central assistance. Similarly, Bihar’s persistent economic issues and the demand for special status can be addressed through current negotiations. In minority coalition politics, appeasing allies to maintain government stability has become a routine necessity. JDU managed to compel BJP to allocate 26,000 crore for various road projects in the state and outline plans for new airports and sports infrastructure and another 11,500 crore for flood mitigation in the July 2024 Budget. Similarly, TDP also managed to get 15,000 crore in financial assistance for Andhra Pradesh for developing Amaravati as the state’s capital. 

Acting as a check on the BJP’s ideological politics: 
Without a common minimum program or agreed-upon conditions regarding the government's ideological positions, NDA alliance partners will struggle to restrain the BJP's ideological agendas. Unlike in the previous NDA government, the BJP is set to exercise greater dominance over its partners, making it challenging for them to influence or counterbalance its policies.  

Amidst these pragmatic politics, the existing faultlines remain intact among the NDA partners. It is in this sense, that both the BJP on the one hand and the JDU-TDP on the other hand are wary. The BJP’s propensity and absolute dominant attitude towards smaller parties in the last couple of years will keep the NDA partners on their toes to ensure that defections do not repeat at the national level.

Equally, JDU-TDP tendency to switch sides or abandon the NDA alliance will keep the BJP busy catering to some of the selective demands of their state’s government. The government formation after the election managed to give a clear message that the NDA has not much drifted away from the previous BJP government’s agenda. The ministries will carry forward the impending programmes without a discontinuity. As far as governance is concerned, continuity is visible in cabinet formation and policy implementation. Nevertheless, it is not to be brushed aside that historically coalition partners also decide based on their possibility for better assertion in the government and the cabinet irrespective of which side they are, BJP or Congress. The wide gap of more than 140 seats between BJP and Congress leaves bleak possibility of a stable alternative alliance that could form the government at the centre led by latter is further imparting strength and stability to NDA, at the moment.